How Raila Lost the 2013 Presidential Election!

With the Supreme Court having dispensed with the judicial reasons (or lack of) that define Raila Amolo Odinga's loss of the presidential election, allow me to give a considered view on the administrative and political reasons (or lack of) that define the same Raila loss; 1. A dysfunctional party - ODM! The party built no systems and institutions to campaign for a presidential win. The iconic fellows in ODM were mostly hang on on the Raila name and extension ODM party resonance to get a through pass into political leadership positions. They mostly did not add value as they did nothing to add value except keep themselves within Raila's sight! The so called grassroot structures were moribund and had no work, nay no instruction to do any work in the buildup to the presidential elections except cheer Raila if he happens around! The national secretariat of ODM was dilapidated in terms of staff, motivation and focus (Kindly note that most kept going on merely due to passion!). They had no organic relationship with the presidential secretariat and their point of harmony was mutual suspicion. Sample this - they did not develop a presidential coordination campaign team, almost all their agents were deployed without training and ToRs and this was mostly done on election eve! Of biggest losses, the defections, no counter strategy was developed or implemented. It was simply haemorrhage which was wrongly viewed from within as good riddance! 2. An opinionated presidential secretariat. First of all in interacting with them, one did not feel was interacting with a team but several people at the same place! But a running streak in almost all of them was the mien of managers of a win and not of seekers of a win! There seemed to be an unspoken philosophy that if the old political thoughts are let or encouraged to flourish, then Raila will win. Little, half-hearted or no efforts were made to areas that were not considered friendly even they were high stakes areas. Either the secretariat had no authority or failed to execute their authority in so far as organising the presidential campaign was concerned. This was evident with the sporadic nature of Raila's campaign, the absence of flow of authority and communication mechanism within the campaign e.g between the national campaign secretariat and the national ODM secretariat, aspirants, candidates, lobbies or with its campaign structures in the counties and constituencies (am assuming that these mechanisms were there!) Suaveness was overrated as a consideration to add value to the campaign at the expense of traditional supporter who were considered an image burden! I am struggling to identify their deliverables- as they failed for instance obviously failed to acquire a copy of the final voters' register from IEBC and a strategic venue for their final rally in Nairobi in time (these venue issue specifically made them look like cry babies!) 3. A uncharacteristically fluid candidate- Raila Amolo Odinga (aka RAO)! i). RAO failed to reach out to and consolidate his relationship with his traditional constituency- the so called radicals! He went overboard to show and court obvious the other side that included prescribed groups with doubtful public standing, iconic business persons with doubtful political persuasions and feel-good international pride that has doubtful election persuassion. It is like he assumed that the so called radicals had no option but to support him, and I think they did but they did not campaign for him at all or in critical numbers and intensity enough to make him stand out as not only an alternative but desireable alternative in the prevailing circumstances. This coupled with his almost unexplained dalliance with bad-boy promoters of the status quo erased any difference between him and his key opponents. ii). RAO identity crisis. He suddenly displayed indecisiveness hitherto never imagined of him! Take the following examples- he was the titular head of CORD alliance but went to his strongholds and strongly advised his people to vote 6-piece suit to the chagrin of his audience and unspoken anger by his alliance partners! There was a deafening call to him to ensure that the ODM party nominations were free and fair. He refused to speak to it and only feebly referred to it when trusted allies started to flee and this was a few days to the nominations by which time people had already doubted his commitment to this. All of us can remember with consternation when during the presidential debate he crumbled when cornered to give his position on land and specifically the Kenyatta land! We saw an apologetic RAO pleading Uhuru's innocence- all pretense of bravado gone! His thus lost the intellectual claim to be a courageous political champion in the face of many! iii). A new RAO! Ruto bolted from ODM, RAO took ages to decide whether to prop up Sally Kosgei, Henry Kosgei or Franklin Bett. The good old RAO made correct decisions instantly! Balala followed out, and Raila did not know wether to prop Omar Hassan, Joho or Kingi? This s trend becomes almost hilarious when Mudavadi is seduced away. In this intance RAO literally falls over himself for Musalia and even imposes a curfew on his troops not to antagonise a gone Musalia! Of course the prize is take by Ngilu's exit. Nguli really twist RAO on her finger by still getting RAO to listen to her and even attend high level strategic sessions public and private even after openly flirting and identifying with the opponents. RAO is simply lost on what to do! Indecisiveness exemplified! All in all the RAO presidential campaign acquired the image of disorganisation, despite the very concerted display of winning. It is this disorganisation, in my view that weakened the RAO perfomance at the ballot and destroyed its otherwise good case at the Judiciary. This was a very expensive demonstration of HOW NOT TO CAMPAIGN if you intend to win! I rest my case. PS: I will share my views on the judicial decision after I see the report informing of their ruling.