NO FACTORS HELD CONSTANT- THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTIONS by ndolo asasa Esq.

The first General election may either be in December 2012, or most likely in March 2012. However today I want to dwell more on who might be our next President come next General Elections. In 1992 Mama Ngina Kenyatta stuck with Democratic Party (DP) of Mwai KIbaki even though her favourite son sought the presidency of this country in 2002 on a KANU ticket. It is alleged that she financially assisted the fledging DP. It is important to note that Mwai KIbaki is the baptismal godfather to Mr.Uhuru Kenyatta. This should greatly explain the support Uhuru gave to Kibaki in the crucial 2007 General Elections consequently abdicating his duties, responsibility and expectations as the Leader of of Official Opposition. Considering that a good turn deserves another, it would be out of this world not to expect Kibaki to return the favour Mama Ngina Kenyatta did in 1992 and Uhuru Kenyatta emphasized in 2007 come next General Election – Unless Kibaki is so ungrateful! By this din, I predict that Uhuru will contest the next General Election for presidency with all benefits of being backed by an incumbent (for the second time in ten years!) and thus he is destined to finish in the top two bracket. Meaning that, those who are expecting Uhuru supporter to back Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi are horribly mistaken! Actually I do not think Mudavadi has a realistic chance of being in the top 5 come next General Elections! BY the massive Agikuyu votes, I expect Uhuru to easily garner well over 4 million votes drawn from Central province, Nairobi area and Rift Valley. He will closely contest the top two positions with Raila Amollo Odinga who will garner similar amount of vote if not more from Nyanza, Western, Rift Valley, Nairobi and Coast regions. I predict that Raila will beat Uhuru to the pole position but will not garner the requisite 50% plus 1 votes to outrightly become the President! In therun-off, Raila will beat Uhuru . He will greatly be aided by the feeling of “No, not another Kikuyu again!!!” especially among the Kalenjins, Kambas and Coastals. My very strong speculation thus is that our next President will be Raila Amolo Odinga, after a guerelling run-off! Where does thus the other Presidential aspirant get placed? William is a flowe girl is as much as the Presidency is concerned and nobody including himself expects to win the presidency, buthe looks forward to being a spoiler for Raila and Uhuru! He might actually “lose in a democratic free and fair election” to Cyrus Jirongo or Eugine Wamalwa during the URP nominations- Please tell me am joking! Kalonzo Musyoka has outside chances only,and only if G7 back him during the elections. Unfortunately nobody seems to trust himin the G7! Kibaki is his friend and is grateful to him for giving legitimacy to his Presidency, but he might as well read the words former President Moi told Siatoti in Lugari in 2007 when he introduced Uhuru Kenyatta in his presence as the preferred Presidential Candidate for him and KANU! BUT, and avery BIG but, should Kalonzo secure the backing of G7 he will then secure a re-run against Raila Odinga and my prediction is that he would the beat Raila hands down! He will easily get absolute majority votes from Central, Coast, Eastern and Rift Valley regions against Raila. I struggle to see any other serious contender outside the 3 above, i.e.Raila kalonzo and Uhuru for the Presidency but Ibeg to explain away a few of the overrated pretanders! 1. Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi He has no message, purpose or strategy apart from hoping that the Raila-Haters will pick on him as a compromise candidate. Unfortunately for him, the Raila haters ate not looking for a compromise candidate, they are looking for a Raila-beater and they do not believe he has what it takes to beat Raila. Whats more he does not have an organic relationship with the Raila haters,he is not trust-worthy. To make matters worse he is mean,a poor orator and a Maragoli apologist! I western he will easily lose to Cyrus Jirongo who is eloquent, a free giver and hails from his own county members but who are complaining of neo-colonialism from Maragolis. In Vihiga County the Tirikis and Banyores (about 60% of the county voters) have a complaint against Maragolis in general and Musalia in particular.Even among the Maragolis, the Vihiga residents are not happy with Musalia and may just rebel in solidarity! During his tenure at DPM and Minister for Local Government only Maragolis from Sabatia have been seen to benefit while their brethren have himbly taken the flak on their behalf. E.g. It is only during Musalia tenure that Maragolis from Vihiga have not held the Mayor’s position as it was hoarded by their Sabatia brothers under the close watch of Musalia. All major Luhya, nay Maragoli appointments in government during Musalia’a tenure have been to his Sabatia Maragolis at the expense of Vihiga Maragolis! Sample this; Mable Imbuga- Deputy Vice Chancellor JKUAT hails from Maragoli(Sabatia); Prof. Florida Karani Chancellor Maseno University hails from Maragoli (Sabatia); Kisia the immediate former Town Clerk Nairobi City Council is a Maragoli (from Sabatia); His Worship the Mayor of Nairobi, George Aladwa is Maragoli (from Sabatia); a Chief Accountant of Nairobi City Council- who was interdicted due to the cemetery saga is a Maragoli (from Sabatia); The Secretary General of Maendeleo ya Wanawake Ms.Alice Kirambi is Maragoli (from Sabatia); The Vice Chair of the IDP Resettleme Committee in the Office of the President is Hon.Moses Akaranga, a Maragoli (from Sabatia). Musalia sa so far not held or defined an agenda for the Kakamega, Busai and Bungoma.Neither does he have foot soldiers or an argument to support his effort so far, UNLESS he links them to Raila! Will these biases play out to determine anything? I leave it to you to predict. What am sure of is that, Hon. Musalia will neither have a full command of his Vihiga County nor the vote-rich Western Kenya. 2. Martha Karua In her effort to stand out as being different and independent, Martha Karua is neither the women’s candidate nor a Kikuyu candidate! She comes across as a person very keen on procedure and a faithful supporter but also as too independent for the power movers and abit anti-Kikuyu, her home turf. While the potential is there and all accept that she has what it takes to lead this country, she still has not yet clicked on the WOW! Factor that would turn her evidently latent potential into real votes. Actually she is the most anti-Kikuyu elite Presidential aspirant so far! She does not seem to have the capacity or idea on how to turn her elaborate and impressive party machinery into an equally massive campaign bulldozer to her favour! She will lose it out to Uhuru and or his machinations! 3. Prof. George Saitoti Apart from suspicion that he has accumulated sufficient goodwill, wealth, machinery and experience to stage a formidable Presidential Campaign, there is no evidence that Saitoti will actually have a strong impression anywhere apart from his Kajiadoenvirons. Kindly allow me not to waste your time and my ink as the rest are nowhere near being serious contenders to lead this country through the ballot in so far as 2012/13 is concerned. Do you have a contention? Bring it on! Conclusion: 1. There will be a run off . 2. Raila will be in the runoff! 3. Raila will be the next President if Uhuru is his main opponent in the run off 4. Kalonzo will be the next president if Raila is his main opponent in the run off. May we have a peaceful election, am not sure about the said election being free and fair considering the obstacles infront of IEBC, Parliamentary fiat and the lack of reforms in the Police- an important section of the election machinery! Talk to me!