By ndolo asasa Esq.
Adage has it that ‘the new is always conceived in the womb of the old’, consequently by their actions or inactions and positioning or strategizing in the build up to 2011; I submit that the following institutions and or persons will play pivotal roles either in value or nuisance in shaping leadership and governance in Kenya in 2011.
• Judiciary
My take is that Judiciary is the single institution outside the people’s power that can and will either make the efforts of recreating Kenya as facilitated by the new constitution a complete nonsense or an actual realization of a true democracy as wished for by Kenyans.
The success of the Judiciary right from winning public trust, disputes resolutions to developing constitutionalism in Kenya, will be dependent on the interpretation availed by the Judiciary.
As such the Chairperson of the Judicial Service Commission (JSC), whoever it will be, is a person to watch. How the person will conduct and manage the vetting and subsequent supervision of the Judges, Magistrates and other judicial staff is the focus.
The Chief Justice is the other person whose skills, character and style will greatly shape the nation, Kenya.
• Parliament
Parliament has the sole responsibility of placing the constitution on proper footing as provided for in the fifth and sixth schedule. Parliament has so far been successful to pull wool over people’s eyes that they really are keen to implement the new constitution and will go to all extents to realize it including sacrificing their time! Whilst the truth is that, Parliament in collusion with the Executive and its protégés , has used time as a dictatorship tool. Illustration: when given a timeline of doing something in say 90 days, they start doing the said thing with so much gusto and zeal on the 88th day!
At such moments then what Parliament is involved in is DEALERSHIP and not LEADERSHIP! The pressure of time then is used to intimidate, coarse and secure cherries for themselves.
We thus are at a real risk of transiting from a Presidential and individualized dictatorship to a parliamentary and institutionalized dictatorship! Take note that because some Parliamentarians are being investigated by Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission (KACC) there is has been a muted call for disbandment of KACC. Because the Kenya National Human Rights Commission (KNHRC) has been vocal on use of state resources by Parliamentarians, there are calls for its disbandment. Because the International Criminal Court (ICC) has identified some Parliamentarians as suspects in organizing the 2007/8 post Election Violence, parliament voted almost unanimously for Kenya to pull out of ICC!
Our Parliament has a such a high affinity for self preservation and being parochial that the leadership of Kenneth Marende, Abdikadir Muhammed, Ababu Namwamba, and Kalonzo Musyoka will be an interesting watch. I throw in Martha Karua and Rachel Shebesh as a wild cards.
• The Grand Coalition Government
We have an Executive led by lame duck convenience arrangement of two Principals who either have no command of their troops or do not enjoy support of the same. Sometimes I suspect both! This is why they a myriad of times failed to rally their brigades at crucial moments and instead resorted weak-kneed-publicity-attracting strategies like ‘parliamentary kamukunjis’ and cheap public sympathy seeking stints like personally appearing in parliament at the flimsiest of public sympathy opportunities when their inability would be most evident.
Raila Odinga is the personality to watch in 2011. He has the unenviable capacity of by his words, actions or luck of them create un assailable lead in view of 2012 elections for himself or more easily, make it a dogfight with other contenders.
• Executive Commissions
Kenyans will, hope and aspirations will greatly be shaped by the leadership provided by Dr. PLO Lumumba at KACC, Mr. Charles Nyachae at The Constitution Implementation Commission (CIC), Mutakha Kangu of the Devolution Taskforce and Dr. Mzalendo Kibunjia at the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC).
• The Civil Society.
I am not expecting any tectonic movements in this sector. A few players though will either consolidate their niches or become irritants to the powers that be! My wish would rather that they gave hope to the masses, but they will not!
Key in the civil society will be Mwalimu Mati of Mars Group; he will expose more sleaze- what with his partnership with Assange of Wikileaks? Morris Odhiambo of the National Civil Society Congress (NCSC) will be the face of efforts of a united civil society assault on the government juggernaut! But Francis Atwoli of COTU will steal the limelight with unprecedented and overtly political activities of the trade movement during the year.
Anne Njogu of CREAW and Sophie Ngugi of Young Women Leadership Institute (YWLI) will provide the much needed breather from a mainly patriarchal civil society.
• The Clergy
The 2 referendums on the constitution (2005 and 2010) seems to have unwoven the fabric of the clergy amongst themselves and with the public in a manner they do not yet have a sufficient mechanism to undo! Their role in the 2011 governance discourse will mainly be uncoordinated articulate lamentations and as such might not shape the year a lot.
Still Sheikh Dor, Sheikh Juma Ngao, Cardinal Njue and Cannon Peter Karanja will be lone voices for sporadic governance matters from the Clergy.
• Diplomatic Missions
The diplomatic corps in Kenya in 2008 said that Kenya is too important to Kenyans, and in 2011 it will not be left to Kenyans either!
The African Union, United States of America Embassy and German Embassy will greatly influence the real politik of Kenya during this year.
• International Community
Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, President of Uganda; President Barrack Hussein of United States of America; and from the ICC - Prosecutor Luis Moreno - Ocampo, Presiding Judge Ekaterina Trendafilova, Judge Hans-Peter Kaul and Judge Cuno Tarfusser are the personalities whose words and actions will most influence Kenya governance from the international community.
Dated this 2nd Day of January 2011.
