Profiles of Western Kenya Heroes and their Sacrifices - By Wafula Buke

Kenyans’ December rises like the sun and crescendos as it picks up momentum towards a climax on the famous 25th day. On this day, all genuflect to the historical mark of Jesus. The word ‘sacrifice’ for the human family crystallizes his short but virtuous life. He paid the ultimate prize after a protracted torturous journey to that hill. Christmas is a period when we remind ourselves of those who have demonstrated this quality in leadership. At Radio Mambo studio, Omar Bakuli, my interviewee, asked me to give profiles of historical personalities from among the Luhya who have sacrificed for society. I considered the occasion opportune. First were the numerous casualties of the resistance to colonial invasion at Lumboka and Chetambe fort in 1898. Luhyas believe the colonialists used the rapid fire gun for the first time in Africa to maul down the brave opposition by Luhyas. The bukusu have a self-praise expression inspired by this event; “Efwe lirango lie Njofu”, we are the thigh of an elephant. Elijah Masinde of the Dini ya Musambwa declared that God was against colonialism and despite there being dismal white settlements in his backyard, went on record as the first known Kenyan to call for the departure of the white man from Africa. He launched the armed struggle in 1947 that preceded the Mau Mau insurgence. It should be noted that the General Service Unit (GSU) was set up by the colonial government on the prompting of the Elijah Masinde-led rebellion in February 1948. In the autobiography of Field Marshal John Okello, Revolution in Zanzibar, the leader of the 1964 Zanzibar revolution, Okello discloses that his deputy in command was one Absolom Ingen; “A Luhya from Kakamega.” The insurrection that lasted 90 hours overthrew the feudal Arab government and installed a socialist government. Incidentally, the two boys lead the revolution despite being aliens from neighboring countries; Uganda and Kenya a reality that made them invite Abeid Karume to be President. John Okello became the Minister for Defense. Scared of the pair, Nyerere, Kenyatta and Obote declared them personae non grata. In fact Okello wrote his book from Kamiti prison. Ingen’s story ends with the coup but Okello was years later found killed in Uganda during Amin’s regime. Masinde Muliro stood up for the assassinated JM kariuki in 1975. “There is no collective responsibility in murder.” He declared. The parliamentary inquiry report which he supported had held the Kenyatta government responsible for the murder of the JM kariuki. Muliro, a lifelong reformist is believed to have been killed in 1992. From his student days in at Alliance High School, Wafula Siakama was principled. On prize giving day, Charles Njonjo, the then Attorney General and Chief Guest made remarks to the effect that Siakama should have focused more on English instead of Kiswahili where he had shined. Siakama, who was walking towards Njonjo, turned back declining the prize creating tension. That moment defined his destiny. At the University of Nairobi, Siakama joined democratic forces delivering fiery speeches with colleagues Odindo Opiata and Rumba Kinuthia among others. He also regularly published anti-establishment articles in Hilary Ng’weno’s Nairobi Times newspaper in late 1970s. Despite being top of his law class, he was denied a scholarship for masters while his politically unmarked colleagues received sponsorship. Frustrated and unemployable, the charismatic youth who scored an upper second class honors in law died hopping from place to place chancing for free accommodation and upkeep. Oyangi Mbaja was born in 1930s in Vihiga. He was a self taught Deputy Editor of an independence paper alongside Hon Dennis Akumu in the 1950s. When Tom Mboya’s wing of Kanu de-radicalized the Kanu manifesto to accommodate the neo-colonial agenda in 1960, he organized demonstrations in Nairobi burning copies of the new manifesto. He remained steadfast participating in organizing opposition to the Kenyatta regime. In 1971, he accused of plotting a coup and jailed for ten years alongside other patriots. After completing his term, he joined Mwakenya, an underground liberation movement and later jailed for another five years in 1986. He died a poor man unable to even buy his drugs. When I visited him in Kenyatta hospital, he had stayed for two days without prescribed drugs that only cost Ksh 350. Ernest Bwire Namadoa was born in 1960 in Budalang’i. He was a photo journalist by occupation. Namadoa believed in the view that “liberation anywhere leads to liberation everywhere” (Che Guevara). He decided to join Museveni in the Uganda war of liberation. After the war, he returned to Kenya to do the groundwork for another liberation war in Kenya. He was jailed for ten years allegedly for spying for Uganda in 1987. After his prison term, he opted to join the war against Mobutu of former Zaire. They liberated the current DRC Congo. Bwire returned to his motherland in late 1990s limping due to a bullet wound. Jobless and unemployable, he found himself ostracized. He lived alone in a single room in Kabete Kiambu where he was found dead in the year 2000. Lastly, the Luhya have Martin Shikuku whose consistency is well known. Detained by Kenyatta in 1977, he is on record for asking God to take him as soon as the new constitution was passed. As we reflect on whom to vote for in March 2013, let us be guided by what Jesus and other heroes from our communities demonstrated; “SACRIFICE”.

TAKING STOCK OF POLITICAL TRANSITIONS IN KENYA By ndolo asasa Esq.

Being of Kenya Kenya came into being as a modern state in 1920 or there about upon officially being colonized by the United Kingdom and thus by default joining the then massive and powerful British Empire. This marked a fundamental change on how the people of Kenya were to relate henceforth. This change occurred in the political arena, economic relationships and cultural development across the population that left the previous nation-states, read tribes, in a form and matter that would never be the same again. This change was variously resisted and or welcome all the way from the Coast, North Eastern through Eastern, Central, Nairobi, Nyanza, Rift Valley and the Western Provinces. The populace in return has not disappointed by appropriately responding to the changes as much as they have come. It is the art of moving thus by way of response from one status to another, that I here refer to as transition. The Kenyan Republic has been most shaped by the changes in governance. Some of the changes have tilted transitions while some have simply excited the existence of a situation. In my view, the following have stood out in the governance transitions in Kenya towards better or otherwise governance. a. Defining Personalities: Mr. Harry Thuku occupies that enviable position of personifying the resistance to colonialism. As much as he is alleged later to have turned collaborator of the colonialist, his action triggered what he could not singularly stop – the fight for independence. This mantle, of being the flagship of resistance to colonialism, is effectively represented by Mr. Dedan Kimathi who moved the resistance to an armed struggle level best narrated as Mau Mau resistance. This heroic narrative of making the Kenya nation is brought to an abrupt end by the entry of oneMr.Johnstone Kamau aka Jomo Kenyatta who was successfully grafted- either by himself or the British agents, onto the pinnacle of the independence struggle. This transition is not celebrated yet it is the biggest and most significant political transition from the traditional nation-states that make Kenya to the Republic of Kenya. In the traditional nation-states, the heroic warriors got the credit for their endeavours including recognition and leadership positions resultant of their efforts. But, by the Jomo Kenyatta paradigm shift, that the Kenya Republic would by default adopt henceforth, leadership and recognition is availed to personalities who are otherwise positioned by factors and circumstances not necessarily their efforts in people and community service. Mr. Pio Gama Pinto has the misfortune of not only being the first high profile political assassin, but also marks that’s transition in the now national psyche of cover up of political murders and assassinations. His assassination has since then been followed with the assassinations or mysterious deaths of Mr. Tom Mboya, Mr. Kungu Karumba, Mr. Bruce Mackenzie, Mr. J.M.Kariuki, Mr. Kiliti Mwendwa, Dr. Robert Ouko, Bishop Alexander Muge, Mr. Masinde Muliro, Mr. George Kapten and now Prof. George Saitoti. Struggles for transition to democracy are ably personified by Jaramogi Adonijah Abednego Ajuma Oginga Odinga, after a life dedicated to expanding democratic political space in the Republic of Kenya. The nemesis of this struggle, armed struggle for more political space after independence is securely represented by Snr. Private Hezekiah Rabala Ochuka. Madam Charity Kaloki Ngilu cuts a forlorn figure of women engagement in political development in the country. Her record and presence on the political map is yet to be challenged by any woman despite the same record being a poor show against the menfolk. It is very telling that both Messrs Daniel Toroitich arap Kimoi and Emilio Mwai Kibaki, former and current Presidents, are more of diligent conveyors of the status quo machinations than pivotal personalities of transition. b. The development of institutions for democratic governance: i).The struggle by natives to regain their sovereign power and dignity from the British Colonialists gained momentum of consolidation through nation-state outfits as was formed by the Coastals, Kikuyus, Kambas , Luos, Luhyas etc. These ethnic based institutions were soon almost simultaneously replaced by regional political parties and sector based trade unions that were more articulate at bargaining with the colonialist at the colonialists’ terms of; what interest do you represent, what acceptable structures do you have and what quick gains can you accept to remain relevant? In this forte struggle, the political parties represented by KANU and KADU trounced the trade unions in the lead upto independence. This was done by either absorbing the prominent trade unionist to significant political party positions or just making the trade unions agenda political party agenda and crowding the trade unions out of public visibility. Upon independence, the trade unions remained under, and the provincial administration was crafted as a government machinery that obliterated the political parties and confined them to irrelevance throughout the first two decades of independence. Upon re-introduction of multiparty politics in the early 1990s, mechanisms for multiparty democracy were democracy were not introduced too. This resulted in political parties now becoming vehicles to mobilisise tribal support and individualized political idolatry. This status has legally greatly been changed by the new order that now expects nationalism, people participation and democracy at party level first, before engaging at the national political leadership arena. The political parties will, after the next general election then have a chance to define their relevance as institutions of democracy over the life of the next parliament henceforth, as they already have a strong legal foundation. ii). Starting the 1980’s Parliament and Judiciary were conscripted as prominent democracy players specifically to constrict the democratic space through legislation, application of law and interpretation of law. With a concerted attack on all the governance institutions in place so far, namely; KANU- read political parties, Parliament and provincial administration and a jeering at the Judiciary, institutions of governance systematically crumbled and the governance of individuals and personalities was promoted as the new governance kid on the block. The new constitution, The Constitution of Kenya (2010) has leased new life into institutions of democracy in the county. With the appointment of a brand new Chief Justice, a totally new judicial system and a confidence instilling vetting of all its officers, the Judiciary is the most enthusiastic institution of governance in the country undergoing recreation. The Provincial Administration is frantically fighting for its survival by the proxy of a retiring Executive, while Parliament will face its most stern test when it is reconstituted after the next general election- the first one in the new constitutional order. c. The journey in structures for democracy 1.Security of the people has with the new constitutional order become the main focus and purpose of police. As before independence, the main purpose for police existence was until upto the end of the first republic, to protect the government machinery and cajole the citizenry into submission. The police recruitment, training, standing orders and deployment was first and foremost crafted to make the police feel informidable and the citizenry most subdued. The police thus have signified official terror, intimidation and oppression. This image is set to change when and if the envisioned constitutional police reforms come to be. These may not be manifested by the first general election after the promulgation of the constitution. 2.Another important structure in the democratic governance journey is the electoral machinery commonly known in Kenya as The Electoral Commission. Until upto the re-introduction of multi-party politics in the early 1990’s, it is the government functionaries that were charged with organising and conducting elections in the country. This arrangement did not give the process much independence leave alone credibility. It become worse in the 1970’s and 80’s when the whole process become a sole responsibility of the much discredited provincial administration and even further constrained if not blurred by being a one-party activity! The Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) came into being in the early 1990’s as a distinct structure to manage and conduct electoral matters in the country, but its creation was shrouded with an intimidating presence of KANU, the ruling party. The leadership was suspect, its financing not independently secured from the government and its structures dilapidated in terms of personnel, equipment and credibility. They are most remembered for mismanaging all the elections under their watch almost without exception and the 2007/8 debacle hangs on their identity like the hallmark at the incompetence of discharging their mandate. The Government of Grand Coalition process provided for a transition mechanism where temporarily the mandate of managing elections and electoral areas was separated and given to interim institutions to facilitate a rebirth of the Electoral Commission under the then envisioned new constitution. During this interim process, wananchi demonstrated unprecedented belief and confidence in the electioneering process if the manner in which the bye-elections and the referendum were conducted and received. But the same enthusiasm was not extended to the electoral areas management unit which was tasked with redrawing the electoral boundaries and creation of new constituencies. This challenge has now been inherited by the substantive Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) that has regained the management mandate of both the electoral process and electoral areas. In coming up with IEBC, mechanisms were put in place to secure the process from the ECK pitfalls. These included insulating the process from pure political party manipulation in its constitution, securing the widest possible participation of all political players, subjecting the recruitment process to public and parliamentary scrutiny and securing its financial independence from the executive arm of the government. The effect of this massive process investment is in the public domain to be judged, at least just yet. 3. The civil society. Until upto the late 1970s, the civil society was largely absent on the Kenyan public governance scene. But nascent intellectual and legal debates in the university corridors enriched with continued unvoiced dissatisfaction created need to have alternative avenues to observe and generate alternative views to public governance matters in the counties. In the early 1980’s, the government employed a heavy hand to crush the now increasingly bold non-state actors commenting and attempting to influence public thought. They were viewed as carrion flies that were meddling min matters that first they did not have mandate to engage in and also that they supposedly know nothing about. This high handedness of the government made the civil society intervention in governance matters to go underground and out of the country but most important assume a political angle that resonated with the citizenry either as political nuisance or true political liberation struggle. By mid 1990s, the civil society had now had now come out more openly using legal spaces to stake legitimacy on engagement in public governance matters but were largely organized thematically but still mainly mobilized along individual and friendship relationships – maybe as a recoil effect of the protracted government crackdown on them. Mid 1990s witnessed unprecedented public participation in civil society governance engagement. The participation was so huge that not even political parties or government efforts could rival them. But the election of a non-KANU party and President to power in 2002 shook the civil society in a manner both not anticipated and ever witnessed before. Maybe it was an unexpected victory too soon. The transitions that occurred within this sector saw some hitherto biggest civil society organizations crumble, civil society prominent personalities join the government or politics in various capacities and various exclusive civil society mandates now taken over by the government. Needless to say that a lot of donor support disappeared with the hugely changed scenario. The effect of this was that, the until then taken for granted public watchdog role, registered a gap. The civil societies’ capacity for the first time become questionable in the eyes of the public, and the confidence of the civil society players and their authoritativeness in engaging the status quo plummeted to record lows. This became most evident in how in they participated in the 2007 General Elections in which they largely held no opinion! Concluding Opinion. The most challenge of securing sustainable democratic governance transition rests with the political parties and the civil society. The political parties must have to make participation in political matters attractive, fashionable, orderly, relevant and acceptable in decency. Those that will not, will either find themselves on the wrong side of the low or inconsequential on the political scene. While the civil society must engineer itself to be a source of alternative approaches to governance matters. The mandate that they have hugely played in the last decade or so, has with the new constitutional order irreversibly been dismantled. They have largely been playing lobby and advocacy position for or against government postulations! This role will now henceforth be more articulately and effectively played by political parties both at the national and county levels of government. =============================================================================

I TOO ASK, WHY NOT? By ndolo asasa Esq.

Can Post Election Violence (PEV) recur in the next General Elections? Why not, I ask? The National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) the only permanent commission of Agenda IV has not set up any permanency of itself 3 years after being unveiled? It has not even sufficiently staffed itself; it has failed to define its niche in this fertile ground of violence, fear of violence and massive citizenry goodwill – apart from popularising the words ‘hatespeech’ which is not EVEN their core mandate!; The NCIC has not developed and shared a strategic framework for identifying, pre-empting, stalling, stopping and managing social disintegration while enhancing cohesion. It is quite telling after the unfortunate demise of its Vice-Chairperson over 2 months ago, NCIC Commissioners have failed to elect one of their own to fill in the seat as provided for by law. By the way, Kenyans no longer engage in hate speech, they have upgraded to hate feelings! The other commission that is supposed to feed NCIC with a historical and philosophical founding for its engagement, the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission (TJRC) is a sorry state of circus on how not to run any process of a grand scale! If only the Police Service had upped their footing in so far as managing organized crime; be it economic, social and political, maybe just may be PEV would be unthinkable come the next General Elections. I refuse to contemplate this wishful desire if the flamboyance of Mombasa Republican Council (MRC) in disrupting the trial election is any indicator of the police investigative capacity or the ease by which grenade throwing youngsters are hitting ‘soft targets’ in our major towns and Mungiki is regrouping like an obvious force of nature! Any pretence is then discarded by the political class that is war-mongering all over the country and in parliament in the name of campaigning and launching their political parties, and like god s and goddess they are pontificating about how their people, read themselves, are the ones that are variously destined to lead this country come the next General Election. Pray, what happens when this doesn’t come to pass as it will sure do? So can Post Election Violence recur in the next General Election? Like Hon. Eugine Ludovic Wamalwa, the Minister for Justice, Cohesion and Constitutional Affairs, I too ask; Why not? Can the next President of the country be determined by Kenyans’ dream of the ideal? In December 1963, Kenyans were wild with celebration upon independence yet they were walking into the unknown. In their minds, they were getting to Nirvana. On August 1st 1982, ululations and even celebrations were witnessed all over the country when Mr. Mambo Mbotela announced over the Voice of Kenya (VoK) Kiswahili Service that “… polisi wote ni raia!” (… all police officers and now civilians). More recently in 2002, at Uhuru Park in ecstasy and jubilance multitudes sang yote yawezeka (all is possible)! Were all these not expressions of Kenyans tinkering with the ideal? Can they still dare seek the ideal leadership come next General Elections? Do they have reason to seek an ideal President come the next General Election? Of course you know my take on this as I again ask; Why not? The unrivalled Michuki support that beat the matatu monsters into discipline and order no one ever thought was possible in Kenya and the massive endorsement the New Constitution (is it still new anyway, with the numerous raping it has undergone by the tenth Parliament under the watch of the affable Speaker Hon. Kenneth Otiato Marende) received unequivocally demonstrates that Kenyans have not given up on the ideal country that Kenya should be, including leadership. So, just who is this ideal person that Kenyans may elect the 4th and next President of the country? First, let me start by who definitely is not the ideal one! Anyone who is inspired and motivated to contest for the Presidency on the basis of tribal consideration. Doubt not this as it has been demonstrated by Muranga- in the heart of Agikuyu variously electing a Jaruo as the Mayor of Muranga Municipality; Migori Municipality in Luoland has also elected a Somali as their Mayor; Nakuru Town in the heart of Rift Valley has had both a Luo and a Luhya elected as Members of Parliament. Can this be replicated at the Presidential elections level? I ask, why not? Second. The ideal President will not be any scandalous person. Meaning a person known or suspected to be engaged in or have been engaged in theft, immoral behaviours and all that is considered criminal locally, internationally, privately or publicly. Does such a person really exist? Isn’t a good thing supposed to be obvious to many eyes? Who is this? The questions is are ‘we’ really looking? And who is the ‘we’? Can ‘We The People’ be able to see and seek the said President on our own without being ‘guided’ by gatekeepers, opinion leaders and their instruments? In my opinion, the ideal President then is going to be, in addition to not being as described above; i. A Kenyan committed to walking the Kenyan dream appropriately and sufficiently expressed and written in the Constitution of Kenya (2010). ii. A person who has the compassion, courage, the drive and will to acknowledge all the historical injustices committed to Kenyans variously as individuals, people groups and communities. A person who will truly and fearlessly seek justice for all those who have been downtrodden on by a skewed system, an immoral class of fellow citizens and their cahoots or just sinful individuals. iii. A friend of the people. A person who in the past and present is associated with engaging in Leadership and NOT Dealership! Hey! ndolo asasa Esq, get real, this is Kenya and not Utopia! Do you really believe that such a person is possible? Or … do you too ask, WHY NOT?

MADARAKA DAY –THE DAY KENYANS MISSED THE BUS! By ndolo asasa Esq

With a booming voice, the First Prime Minister of the new Kenya State, The Hon. Johnstone Kamau a.k.a. Jomo Kenyatta announced to the jubilant Kenyans and an attentive world that Kenya would use its “Madaraka” to fight poverty, ignorance and disease to a thundering applause! And with this statement we missed the bus, almost totally! Or at least for close to 50 years we missed the bus. LAND. What had instigated the Africans and Kenyans for that matter to fight the colonialist for numerous decades was to regain their cardinal right to own, access and use land in whatever manners that was beneficial to them. The colonialists had become a stumbling block nay, a barrier to the said Kenyans using their land for fellow Kenyans wellbeing. Most well remembered is that Kenyans were not allowed to rear some kinds of livestock, grow cash crops and even own land in prime agricultural, tourist and urban areas. This is why the MAU MAU, our celebrated freedom fighters, were alleged to have been so agitated that when anyone of them fell to the colonialist’s and homeguards’ bullets they clutched soil in their hands as a last act of defiance and a signal to continue fighting for the land, our land. The utility and identity value of land is what makes us fondly call our country, OUR LAND! But is it really our land? During this famous speech, 49 years ago Jomo Kenyatta interestingly and curiously FORGOT to include reclaiming OUR LAND , access to it and utility as a key focus of our Madaraka, the main result of the Mau Mau resistance! It MUST be remembered here that MADARAKA means power, authority and sovereignty! Is it not surprising that one of the key reasons why Kenyans fought for Madaraka, lost their lives, careers and opportunities was not a priority focus for the ‘independence regime’? THE QUESTION THEN IS, IF NOT LAND WHAT WERE KENYANS AND MAU MAU (The catalysts of our independence) IN PARTICULAR FIGHTING FOR ALL THIS TIME? As if to assert that the exclusion from focus was not a mistake, 49 years after the said attainment of MADARAKA we do not have a national policy on land. Is it thus surprising that since independence the most intense wars that have been fought in Kenya either between persons, between communities or with the state has been over land! Be it the Shifta War! The Tindinyo Wars! Or be it the infamous land and tribal clashes stretching from Mt. Elgon, through Burnt Forest, Kuresoi, Sotik, Trans Mara, Wajir to Likoni? Or more recently the post election violence of 2007/8? So at independence we missed the purpose for which we sought MADARAKA for with all we had including our lives! Do you agree with me? That what we fought for is not what we “won”? LEADERSHIP But this is not all. The other reason we fought so hard was so that we are able to lead ourselves and determine our own destiny. That we were slighted by the colonialist imposing leaders on us using the church, their side kick collaborators and homeguard services. That we were subjected to forceful authority sometimes perpetrated by our own brothers (I do not have records of any women!) Our forefather revolted against imposed, oppressive and insensitive leadership and non consideration and input from the native Kenyans in the same. So when we got MADARAKA the foremost thing that should have come to the surface was the raw meaning the word MADARAKA being power, authority and sovereignty. That by getting MADARAKA we should have got the Power and Authority with all the ingredients that we missed under colonization! These were to include now intentionally identifying and nurturing our own acceptable leadership that rules us with our consent for our well being. It thus follows that good leadership; inferring good use of our Madaraka (power and authority) should have been a national priority to drive our self determination. Is it any wonder that bad and or suspect leadership has generously punctuated the nearly 50 years of the independent country Kenya? That most of the problems of this country can easily be traced to leadership of the day; be it violence, scandals, assassinations, corruption or base crime. Seemingly leadership was not supposed to be a major concern for the independent Kenya as disease, ignorance and poverty would sort them out! I hold that had the matters of land and leadership been in this speech and by focus thus a priority for our independent motherland, Kenya would be a truly a great country and definitely a far better place to live in than where we are. What do you say?

NO FACTORS HELD CONSTANT- THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTIONS by ndolo asasa Esq.

The first General election may either be in December 2012, or most likely in March 2012. However today I want to dwell more on who might be our next President come next General Elections. In 1992 Mama Ngina Kenyatta stuck with Democratic Party (DP) of Mwai KIbaki even though her favourite son sought the presidency of this country in 2002 on a KANU ticket. It is alleged that she financially assisted the fledging DP. It is important to note that Mwai KIbaki is the baptismal godfather to Mr.Uhuru Kenyatta. This should greatly explain the support Uhuru gave to Kibaki in the crucial 2007 General Elections consequently abdicating his duties, responsibility and expectations as the Leader of of Official Opposition. Considering that a good turn deserves another, it would be out of this world not to expect Kibaki to return the favour Mama Ngina Kenyatta did in 1992 and Uhuru Kenyatta emphasized in 2007 come next General Election – Unless Kibaki is so ungrateful! By this din, I predict that Uhuru will contest the next General Election for presidency with all benefits of being backed by an incumbent (for the second time in ten years!) and thus he is destined to finish in the top two bracket. Meaning that, those who are expecting Uhuru supporter to back Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi are horribly mistaken! Actually I do not think Mudavadi has a realistic chance of being in the top 5 come next General Elections! BY the massive Agikuyu votes, I expect Uhuru to easily garner well over 4 million votes drawn from Central province, Nairobi area and Rift Valley. He will closely contest the top two positions with Raila Amollo Odinga who will garner similar amount of vote if not more from Nyanza, Western, Rift Valley, Nairobi and Coast regions. I predict that Raila will beat Uhuru to the pole position but will not garner the requisite 50% plus 1 votes to outrightly become the President! In therun-off, Raila will beat Uhuru . He will greatly be aided by the feeling of “No, not another Kikuyu again!!!” especially among the Kalenjins, Kambas and Coastals. My very strong speculation thus is that our next President will be Raila Amolo Odinga, after a guerelling run-off! Where does thus the other Presidential aspirant get placed? William is a flowe girl is as much as the Presidency is concerned and nobody including himself expects to win the presidency, buthe looks forward to being a spoiler for Raila and Uhuru! He might actually “lose in a democratic free and fair election” to Cyrus Jirongo or Eugine Wamalwa during the URP nominations- Please tell me am joking! Kalonzo Musyoka has outside chances only,and only if G7 back him during the elections. Unfortunately nobody seems to trust himin the G7! Kibaki is his friend and is grateful to him for giving legitimacy to his Presidency, but he might as well read the words former President Moi told Siatoti in Lugari in 2007 when he introduced Uhuru Kenyatta in his presence as the preferred Presidential Candidate for him and KANU! BUT, and avery BIG but, should Kalonzo secure the backing of G7 he will then secure a re-run against Raila Odinga and my prediction is that he would the beat Raila hands down! He will easily get absolute majority votes from Central, Coast, Eastern and Rift Valley regions against Raila. I struggle to see any other serious contender outside the 3 above, i.e.Raila kalonzo and Uhuru for the Presidency but Ibeg to explain away a few of the overrated pretanders! 1. Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi He has no message, purpose or strategy apart from hoping that the Raila-Haters will pick on him as a compromise candidate. Unfortunately for him, the Raila haters ate not looking for a compromise candidate, they are looking for a Raila-beater and they do not believe he has what it takes to beat Raila. Whats more he does not have an organic relationship with the Raila haters,he is not trust-worthy. To make matters worse he is mean,a poor orator and a Maragoli apologist! I western he will easily lose to Cyrus Jirongo who is eloquent, a free giver and hails from his own county members but who are complaining of neo-colonialism from Maragolis. In Vihiga County the Tirikis and Banyores (about 60% of the county voters) have a complaint against Maragolis in general and Musalia in particular.Even among the Maragolis, the Vihiga residents are not happy with Musalia and may just rebel in solidarity! During his tenure at DPM and Minister for Local Government only Maragolis from Sabatia have been seen to benefit while their brethren have himbly taken the flak on their behalf. E.g. It is only during Musalia tenure that Maragolis from Vihiga have not held the Mayor’s position as it was hoarded by their Sabatia brothers under the close watch of Musalia. All major Luhya, nay Maragoli appointments in government during Musalia’a tenure have been to his Sabatia Maragolis at the expense of Vihiga Maragolis! Sample this; Mable Imbuga- Deputy Vice Chancellor JKUAT hails from Maragoli(Sabatia); Prof. Florida Karani Chancellor Maseno University hails from Maragoli (Sabatia); Kisia the immediate former Town Clerk Nairobi City Council is a Maragoli (from Sabatia); His Worship the Mayor of Nairobi, George Aladwa is Maragoli (from Sabatia); a Chief Accountant of Nairobi City Council- who was interdicted due to the cemetery saga is a Maragoli (from Sabatia); The Secretary General of Maendeleo ya Wanawake Ms.Alice Kirambi is Maragoli (from Sabatia); The Vice Chair of the IDP Resettleme Committee in the Office of the President is Hon.Moses Akaranga, a Maragoli (from Sabatia). Musalia sa so far not held or defined an agenda for the Kakamega, Busai and Bungoma.Neither does he have foot soldiers or an argument to support his effort so far, UNLESS he links them to Raila! Will these biases play out to determine anything? I leave it to you to predict. What am sure of is that, Hon. Musalia will neither have a full command of his Vihiga County nor the vote-rich Western Kenya. 2. Martha Karua In her effort to stand out as being different and independent, Martha Karua is neither the women’s candidate nor a Kikuyu candidate! She comes across as a person very keen on procedure and a faithful supporter but also as too independent for the power movers and abit anti-Kikuyu, her home turf. While the potential is there and all accept that she has what it takes to lead this country, she still has not yet clicked on the WOW! Factor that would turn her evidently latent potential into real votes. Actually she is the most anti-Kikuyu elite Presidential aspirant so far! She does not seem to have the capacity or idea on how to turn her elaborate and impressive party machinery into an equally massive campaign bulldozer to her favour! She will lose it out to Uhuru and or his machinations! 3. Prof. George Saitoti Apart from suspicion that he has accumulated sufficient goodwill, wealth, machinery and experience to stage a formidable Presidential Campaign, there is no evidence that Saitoti will actually have a strong impression anywhere apart from his Kajiadoenvirons. Kindly allow me not to waste your time and my ink as the rest are nowhere near being serious contenders to lead this country through the ballot in so far as 2012/13 is concerned. Do you have a contention? Bring it on! Conclusion: 1. There will be a run off . 2. Raila will be in the runoff! 3. Raila will be the next President if Uhuru is his main opponent in the run off 4. Kalonzo will be the next president if Raila is his main opponent in the run off. May we have a peaceful election, am not sure about the said election being free and fair considering the obstacles infront of IEBC, Parliamentary fiat and the lack of reforms in the Police- an important section of the election machinery! Talk to me!

WAMALWA STARTED ON A BAD NOTE!

The newly appointed Minister of Justice, Hon Eugine Wamalwa started off his duties by gracing a ‘Prayer Rally’ for a section of the PEV ICC suspects at Litein in Kericho on Saturday last week. In this rally he emphatically declared that “I don’t care what anyone has to say..!” in reference to his continued attendance of the said prayer meetings.
The Ministry of Justice, National Cohesion and Constitutional Affairs which he heads is supposed to spearhead cohesion including integrating the victims, perpetrators of law breakage and law abiding citizens. Pray, just how does Mr.Wamalwa intend to do this with the PEV victims and the only known PEV suspects when he declares that he will listen to NO ONE while attending the suspects’ political chest thumbing rallies!
That’s not all, his ministry is the lead agency in the appropriately named K-NICE (Kenya National Integrated Civic Education) Programme that among others will enhance citizens knowledge of the constitution, promote people participation in the constitutional implementation and help mid-wife a truly new Kenya! Just how will this happen when the titular head, the Minister himself has unequivocally declared that he will not listen to anyone? Why should others listen to him or worse listen to each other.
I expected that Hon. Wamalwa would take time to first articulate his vision and programme for the ministry during his term. This would have served as a pre-view to his Presidency and a chance to be taken seriously from the word go!
Mr. Wamalwa must give priority to the Judges and Magistrates Amendment Act, The County Government Bill, the Land Bills, the Leadership and Integrity Bill all due in Parliament before August this year. He should have used his honeymoon period- for lack of a better word, to court all sections of the Kenyan society to develop and nurture goodwill than be sectoral and confrontational.
The naivety of Hon Wamalwa is going to be the most costly mistake Kenya will incur in so far as reforms are concerned in this country only second to the Post Election Violence of 2007/8 unless the civil society, religious community, the private sector and the general population stamp their authority not to surrender the fate of this country to possible embryonic experimentation by an overzealous marionette.