I TOO ASK, WHY NOT? By ndolo asasa Esq.

Can Post Election Violence (PEV) recur in the next General Elections? Why not, I ask? The National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) the only permanent commission of Agenda IV has not set up any permanency of itself 3 years after being unveiled? It has not even sufficiently staffed itself; it has failed to define its niche in this fertile ground of violence, fear of violence and massive citizenry goodwill – apart from popularising the words ‘hatespeech’ which is not EVEN their core mandate!; The NCIC has not developed and shared a strategic framework for identifying, pre-empting, stalling, stopping and managing social disintegration while enhancing cohesion. It is quite telling after the unfortunate demise of its Vice-Chairperson over 2 months ago, NCIC Commissioners have failed to elect one of their own to fill in the seat as provided for by law. By the way, Kenyans no longer engage in hate speech, they have upgraded to hate feelings! The other commission that is supposed to feed NCIC with a historical and philosophical founding for its engagement, the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission (TJRC) is a sorry state of circus on how not to run any process of a grand scale! If only the Police Service had upped their footing in so far as managing organized crime; be it economic, social and political, maybe just may be PEV would be unthinkable come the next General Elections. I refuse to contemplate this wishful desire if the flamboyance of Mombasa Republican Council (MRC) in disrupting the trial election is any indicator of the police investigative capacity or the ease by which grenade throwing youngsters are hitting ‘soft targets’ in our major towns and Mungiki is regrouping like an obvious force of nature! Any pretence is then discarded by the political class that is war-mongering all over the country and in parliament in the name of campaigning and launching their political parties, and like god s and goddess they are pontificating about how their people, read themselves, are the ones that are variously destined to lead this country come the next General Election. Pray, what happens when this doesn’t come to pass as it will sure do? So can Post Election Violence recur in the next General Election? Like Hon. Eugine Ludovic Wamalwa, the Minister for Justice, Cohesion and Constitutional Affairs, I too ask; Why not? Can the next President of the country be determined by Kenyans’ dream of the ideal? In December 1963, Kenyans were wild with celebration upon independence yet they were walking into the unknown. In their minds, they were getting to Nirvana. On August 1st 1982, ululations and even celebrations were witnessed all over the country when Mr. Mambo Mbotela announced over the Voice of Kenya (VoK) Kiswahili Service that “… polisi wote ni raia!” (… all police officers and now civilians). More recently in 2002, at Uhuru Park in ecstasy and jubilance multitudes sang yote yawezeka (all is possible)! Were all these not expressions of Kenyans tinkering with the ideal? Can they still dare seek the ideal leadership come next General Elections? Do they have reason to seek an ideal President come the next General Election? Of course you know my take on this as I again ask; Why not? The unrivalled Michuki support that beat the matatu monsters into discipline and order no one ever thought was possible in Kenya and the massive endorsement the New Constitution (is it still new anyway, with the numerous raping it has undergone by the tenth Parliament under the watch of the affable Speaker Hon. Kenneth Otiato Marende) received unequivocally demonstrates that Kenyans have not given up on the ideal country that Kenya should be, including leadership. So, just who is this ideal person that Kenyans may elect the 4th and next President of the country? First, let me start by who definitely is not the ideal one! Anyone who is inspired and motivated to contest for the Presidency on the basis of tribal consideration. Doubt not this as it has been demonstrated by Muranga- in the heart of Agikuyu variously electing a Jaruo as the Mayor of Muranga Municipality; Migori Municipality in Luoland has also elected a Somali as their Mayor; Nakuru Town in the heart of Rift Valley has had both a Luo and a Luhya elected as Members of Parliament. Can this be replicated at the Presidential elections level? I ask, why not? Second. The ideal President will not be any scandalous person. Meaning a person known or suspected to be engaged in or have been engaged in theft, immoral behaviours and all that is considered criminal locally, internationally, privately or publicly. Does such a person really exist? Isn’t a good thing supposed to be obvious to many eyes? Who is this? The questions is are ‘we’ really looking? And who is the ‘we’? Can ‘We The People’ be able to see and seek the said President on our own without being ‘guided’ by gatekeepers, opinion leaders and their instruments? In my opinion, the ideal President then is going to be, in addition to not being as described above; i. A Kenyan committed to walking the Kenyan dream appropriately and sufficiently expressed and written in the Constitution of Kenya (2010). ii. A person who has the compassion, courage, the drive and will to acknowledge all the historical injustices committed to Kenyans variously as individuals, people groups and communities. A person who will truly and fearlessly seek justice for all those who have been downtrodden on by a skewed system, an immoral class of fellow citizens and their cahoots or just sinful individuals. iii. A friend of the people. A person who in the past and present is associated with engaging in Leadership and NOT Dealership! Hey! ndolo asasa Esq, get real, this is Kenya and not Utopia! Do you really believe that such a person is possible? Or … do you too ask, WHY NOT?

MADARAKA DAY –THE DAY KENYANS MISSED THE BUS! By ndolo asasa Esq

With a booming voice, the First Prime Minister of the new Kenya State, The Hon. Johnstone Kamau a.k.a. Jomo Kenyatta announced to the jubilant Kenyans and an attentive world that Kenya would use its “Madaraka” to fight poverty, ignorance and disease to a thundering applause! And with this statement we missed the bus, almost totally! Or at least for close to 50 years we missed the bus. LAND. What had instigated the Africans and Kenyans for that matter to fight the colonialist for numerous decades was to regain their cardinal right to own, access and use land in whatever manners that was beneficial to them. The colonialists had become a stumbling block nay, a barrier to the said Kenyans using their land for fellow Kenyans wellbeing. Most well remembered is that Kenyans were not allowed to rear some kinds of livestock, grow cash crops and even own land in prime agricultural, tourist and urban areas. This is why the MAU MAU, our celebrated freedom fighters, were alleged to have been so agitated that when anyone of them fell to the colonialist’s and homeguards’ bullets they clutched soil in their hands as a last act of defiance and a signal to continue fighting for the land, our land. The utility and identity value of land is what makes us fondly call our country, OUR LAND! But is it really our land? During this famous speech, 49 years ago Jomo Kenyatta interestingly and curiously FORGOT to include reclaiming OUR LAND , access to it and utility as a key focus of our Madaraka, the main result of the Mau Mau resistance! It MUST be remembered here that MADARAKA means power, authority and sovereignty! Is it not surprising that one of the key reasons why Kenyans fought for Madaraka, lost their lives, careers and opportunities was not a priority focus for the ‘independence regime’? THE QUESTION THEN IS, IF NOT LAND WHAT WERE KENYANS AND MAU MAU (The catalysts of our independence) IN PARTICULAR FIGHTING FOR ALL THIS TIME? As if to assert that the exclusion from focus was not a mistake, 49 years after the said attainment of MADARAKA we do not have a national policy on land. Is it thus surprising that since independence the most intense wars that have been fought in Kenya either between persons, between communities or with the state has been over land! Be it the Shifta War! The Tindinyo Wars! Or be it the infamous land and tribal clashes stretching from Mt. Elgon, through Burnt Forest, Kuresoi, Sotik, Trans Mara, Wajir to Likoni? Or more recently the post election violence of 2007/8? So at independence we missed the purpose for which we sought MADARAKA for with all we had including our lives! Do you agree with me? That what we fought for is not what we “won”? LEADERSHIP But this is not all. The other reason we fought so hard was so that we are able to lead ourselves and determine our own destiny. That we were slighted by the colonialist imposing leaders on us using the church, their side kick collaborators and homeguard services. That we were subjected to forceful authority sometimes perpetrated by our own brothers (I do not have records of any women!) Our forefather revolted against imposed, oppressive and insensitive leadership and non consideration and input from the native Kenyans in the same. So when we got MADARAKA the foremost thing that should have come to the surface was the raw meaning the word MADARAKA being power, authority and sovereignty. That by getting MADARAKA we should have got the Power and Authority with all the ingredients that we missed under colonization! These were to include now intentionally identifying and nurturing our own acceptable leadership that rules us with our consent for our well being. It thus follows that good leadership; inferring good use of our Madaraka (power and authority) should have been a national priority to drive our self determination. Is it any wonder that bad and or suspect leadership has generously punctuated the nearly 50 years of the independent country Kenya? That most of the problems of this country can easily be traced to leadership of the day; be it violence, scandals, assassinations, corruption or base crime. Seemingly leadership was not supposed to be a major concern for the independent Kenya as disease, ignorance and poverty would sort them out! I hold that had the matters of land and leadership been in this speech and by focus thus a priority for our independent motherland, Kenya would be a truly a great country and definitely a far better place to live in than where we are. What do you say?

NO FACTORS HELD CONSTANT- THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTIONS by ndolo asasa Esq.

The first General election may either be in December 2012, or most likely in March 2012. However today I want to dwell more on who might be our next President come next General Elections. In 1992 Mama Ngina Kenyatta stuck with Democratic Party (DP) of Mwai KIbaki even though her favourite son sought the presidency of this country in 2002 on a KANU ticket. It is alleged that she financially assisted the fledging DP. It is important to note that Mwai KIbaki is the baptismal godfather to Mr.Uhuru Kenyatta. This should greatly explain the support Uhuru gave to Kibaki in the crucial 2007 General Elections consequently abdicating his duties, responsibility and expectations as the Leader of of Official Opposition. Considering that a good turn deserves another, it would be out of this world not to expect Kibaki to return the favour Mama Ngina Kenyatta did in 1992 and Uhuru Kenyatta emphasized in 2007 come next General Election – Unless Kibaki is so ungrateful! By this din, I predict that Uhuru will contest the next General Election for presidency with all benefits of being backed by an incumbent (for the second time in ten years!) and thus he is destined to finish in the top two bracket. Meaning that, those who are expecting Uhuru supporter to back Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi are horribly mistaken! Actually I do not think Mudavadi has a realistic chance of being in the top 5 come next General Elections! BY the massive Agikuyu votes, I expect Uhuru to easily garner well over 4 million votes drawn from Central province, Nairobi area and Rift Valley. He will closely contest the top two positions with Raila Amollo Odinga who will garner similar amount of vote if not more from Nyanza, Western, Rift Valley, Nairobi and Coast regions. I predict that Raila will beat Uhuru to the pole position but will not garner the requisite 50% plus 1 votes to outrightly become the President! In therun-off, Raila will beat Uhuru . He will greatly be aided by the feeling of “No, not another Kikuyu again!!!” especially among the Kalenjins, Kambas and Coastals. My very strong speculation thus is that our next President will be Raila Amolo Odinga, after a guerelling run-off! Where does thus the other Presidential aspirant get placed? William is a flowe girl is as much as the Presidency is concerned and nobody including himself expects to win the presidency, buthe looks forward to being a spoiler for Raila and Uhuru! He might actually “lose in a democratic free and fair election” to Cyrus Jirongo or Eugine Wamalwa during the URP nominations- Please tell me am joking! Kalonzo Musyoka has outside chances only,and only if G7 back him during the elections. Unfortunately nobody seems to trust himin the G7! Kibaki is his friend and is grateful to him for giving legitimacy to his Presidency, but he might as well read the words former President Moi told Siatoti in Lugari in 2007 when he introduced Uhuru Kenyatta in his presence as the preferred Presidential Candidate for him and KANU! BUT, and avery BIG but, should Kalonzo secure the backing of G7 he will then secure a re-run against Raila Odinga and my prediction is that he would the beat Raila hands down! He will easily get absolute majority votes from Central, Coast, Eastern and Rift Valley regions against Raila. I struggle to see any other serious contender outside the 3 above, i.e.Raila kalonzo and Uhuru for the Presidency but Ibeg to explain away a few of the overrated pretanders! 1. Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi He has no message, purpose or strategy apart from hoping that the Raila-Haters will pick on him as a compromise candidate. Unfortunately for him, the Raila haters ate not looking for a compromise candidate, they are looking for a Raila-beater and they do not believe he has what it takes to beat Raila. Whats more he does not have an organic relationship with the Raila haters,he is not trust-worthy. To make matters worse he is mean,a poor orator and a Maragoli apologist! I western he will easily lose to Cyrus Jirongo who is eloquent, a free giver and hails from his own county members but who are complaining of neo-colonialism from Maragolis. In Vihiga County the Tirikis and Banyores (about 60% of the county voters) have a complaint against Maragolis in general and Musalia in particular.Even among the Maragolis, the Vihiga residents are not happy with Musalia and may just rebel in solidarity! During his tenure at DPM and Minister for Local Government only Maragolis from Sabatia have been seen to benefit while their brethren have himbly taken the flak on their behalf. E.g. It is only during Musalia tenure that Maragolis from Vihiga have not held the Mayor’s position as it was hoarded by their Sabatia brothers under the close watch of Musalia. All major Luhya, nay Maragoli appointments in government during Musalia’a tenure have been to his Sabatia Maragolis at the expense of Vihiga Maragolis! Sample this; Mable Imbuga- Deputy Vice Chancellor JKUAT hails from Maragoli(Sabatia); Prof. Florida Karani Chancellor Maseno University hails from Maragoli (Sabatia); Kisia the immediate former Town Clerk Nairobi City Council is a Maragoli (from Sabatia); His Worship the Mayor of Nairobi, George Aladwa is Maragoli (from Sabatia); a Chief Accountant of Nairobi City Council- who was interdicted due to the cemetery saga is a Maragoli (from Sabatia); The Secretary General of Maendeleo ya Wanawake Ms.Alice Kirambi is Maragoli (from Sabatia); The Vice Chair of the IDP Resettleme Committee in the Office of the President is Hon.Moses Akaranga, a Maragoli (from Sabatia). Musalia sa so far not held or defined an agenda for the Kakamega, Busai and Bungoma.Neither does he have foot soldiers or an argument to support his effort so far, UNLESS he links them to Raila! Will these biases play out to determine anything? I leave it to you to predict. What am sure of is that, Hon. Musalia will neither have a full command of his Vihiga County nor the vote-rich Western Kenya. 2. Martha Karua In her effort to stand out as being different and independent, Martha Karua is neither the women’s candidate nor a Kikuyu candidate! She comes across as a person very keen on procedure and a faithful supporter but also as too independent for the power movers and abit anti-Kikuyu, her home turf. While the potential is there and all accept that she has what it takes to lead this country, she still has not yet clicked on the WOW! Factor that would turn her evidently latent potential into real votes. Actually she is the most anti-Kikuyu elite Presidential aspirant so far! She does not seem to have the capacity or idea on how to turn her elaborate and impressive party machinery into an equally massive campaign bulldozer to her favour! She will lose it out to Uhuru and or his machinations! 3. Prof. George Saitoti Apart from suspicion that he has accumulated sufficient goodwill, wealth, machinery and experience to stage a formidable Presidential Campaign, there is no evidence that Saitoti will actually have a strong impression anywhere apart from his Kajiadoenvirons. Kindly allow me not to waste your time and my ink as the rest are nowhere near being serious contenders to lead this country through the ballot in so far as 2012/13 is concerned. Do you have a contention? Bring it on! Conclusion: 1. There will be a run off . 2. Raila will be in the runoff! 3. Raila will be the next President if Uhuru is his main opponent in the run off 4. Kalonzo will be the next president if Raila is his main opponent in the run off. May we have a peaceful election, am not sure about the said election being free and fair considering the obstacles infront of IEBC, Parliamentary fiat and the lack of reforms in the Police- an important section of the election machinery! Talk to me!